Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.593779 1.807356 2.035033 2.295376 2.584385 2.894928 3.253400
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.362036 1.665649 2.010437 2.429273 2.922498 3.482982 4.166129
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.149699 1.511026 1.946629 2.506391 3.202115 4.033550 5.097017
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.020962 1.437379 1.968585 2.687881 3.627219 4.802048 6.370787
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.844063 1.275710 1.859066 2.691694 3.833678 5.326948 7.405518
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.713976 1.156757 1.789609 2.739495 4.103873 5.963282 8.652263
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.596821 1.036885 1.701871 2.750463 4.325403 6.558259 9.905969
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.525520 0.974832 1.689841 2.869444 4.714178 7.423558 11.617613
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.458930 0.908730 1.661993 2.960633 5.071987 8.278980 13.395242
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.394933 0.835245 1.611194 3.008300 5.367420 9.068884 15.146744
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.342508 0.772763 1.569519 3.065148 5.683066 9.917742 17.060598
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.284108 0.686690 1.472180 3.012026 5.808899 10.475819 18.564660
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.229521 0.598433 1.360345 2.925201 5.881303 10.977620 20.064536
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.195403 0.546827 1.311717 2.950765 6.158375 11.851587 22.260345
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.162919 0.490850 1.244302 2.930125 6.348792 12.595427 24.303041
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.145318 0.467337 1.243041 3.044617 6.810824 13.863950 27.362197
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.118679 0.412449 1.160557 2.974963 6.902898 14.468160 29.293133
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.100045 0.374280 1.110038 2.967579 7.119853 15.323775 31.747463
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.083192 0.335925 1.051176 2.931742 7.272496 16.068733 34.053331
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.074004 0.319035 1.044558 3.018082 7.696249 17.375996 37.511625
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.065134 0.300286 1.029235 3.080911 8.074907 18.623487 40.942388
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.056226 0.278194 0.999901 3.103845 8.365475 19.714305 44.141551
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.048970 0.259680 0.977211 3.140682 8.692174 20.905256 47.619874